Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- QuestionableBrodrick BunkleyDTBack· Full
- QuestionableGlenn FosterDEKnee· Full
- QuestionableJosh HillTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKeyunta DawsonLBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableRafael BushSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTerron ArmsteadTNose· Full
Rams
- QuestionableDaryl RichardsonRBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableHarvey DahlGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJanoris JenkinsCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableTavon AustinWRAnkle· DNP
- ProbableBrandon McGeeCBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 11:27 | 1 | 31 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:20 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:34 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q1 2:45 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 2:44 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 14:57 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 10:17 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–17 |
| NO | Q2 7:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:23 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| NO | Q2 4:10 | 15 | 82 | Missed field goal | 3–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 10:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 8:39 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 8:12 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| NO | Q3 2:42 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 9–27 |
| LA | Q4 11:25 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 9–27 |
| NO | Q4 8:14 | 18 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–27 |
| LA | Q4 3:07 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 16–27 |
| NO | Q4 3:04 | 5 | 48 | Missed field goal | 16–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 16–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/56 | 393 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.