Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/56 | 393 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.