Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
56.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/41 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 10 | 59 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.