Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
56.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· Limited
- QuestionableJohnny PatrickCBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableShareece WrightCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEKnee· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJarret JohnsonLBHand· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableLawrence GuyDEToe· Full
- ProbableNick HardwickCNeck· Full
- ProbableSean LissemoreDEToe· Full
Broncos
- OutDerek WolfeDEIllness· DNP
- OutWes WelkerWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableChamp BaileyCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableC.J. AndersonRBIllness· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableDavid BrutonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableDemaryius ThomasWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableEric DeckerWRRibs· Full
- ProbableJ.D. WaltonCAnkle· Full
- ProbableJoel DreessenTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJulius ThomasTEKnee· Full
- ProbableKnowshon MorenoRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMalik JacksonDEKnee· Full
- ProbableMike AdamsSThumb· Full
- ProbableOmar BoldenCBShoulder· Full
- ProbablePeyton ManningQBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTrindon HollidayWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableWinston JusticeTFinger· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:51 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:15 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:22 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q2 9:46 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 8:39 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:27 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:31 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| DEN | Q3 11:06 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:52 | 14 | 44 | Punt | 24–10 |
| DEN | Q3 1:32 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 10:25 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 24–17 |
| DEN | Q4 5:50 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 5:07 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| DEN | Q4 2:36 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 27–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/41 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 10 | 59 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.