2013 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

13·24

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.105
  • 39.2%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.79CPOE-4.00
  • 34.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.25
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
CLEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:39628Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 12:011229Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 6:30828Punt3–0
CLEQ1 2:101664Turnover on downs3–0
NYJQ2 10:41617Punt3–0
CLEQ2 8:25441Touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 6:471490Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 1:1838Punt10–7
NYJQ2 0:34465Field goal10–10
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt10–10
CLEQ3 13:10950Turnover10–10
NYJQ3 9:10530Missed field goal10–10
CLEQ3 7:093-8Punt10–10
NYJQ3 5:421481Touchdown10–17
CLEQ4 14:14955Field goal13–17
NYJQ4 9:401475Touchdown13–24
CLEQ4 3:19737Turnover13–24
NYJQ4 1:4600End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell18/4017802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edwin Baker17643.81
Josh Gordon12222.00
Jason Campbell22110.50
Chris Ogbonnaya188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon616970
Josh Cooper46260
Gary Barnidge24230
Brian Tyms22120
Edwin Baker23120
Chris Ogbonnaya1140
Greg Little1440
MarQueis Gray0400

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3621420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory201095.50
Bilal Powell7547.70
Geno Smith10484.81
Jeremy Kerley188.00
Saalim Hakim1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley511700
Kellen Winslow35350
David Nelson45332
Jeff Cumberland23300
Bilal Powell45260
Santonio Holmes26200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.03