Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.105
- 39.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.79CPOE-4.00
- 34.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.27Points / drive1.25
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/40 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Baker | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 6 | 16 | 97 | 0 |
| Josh Cooper | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Edwin Baker | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/36 | 214 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Saalim Hakim | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 2 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03