Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
42
Model margin
+7.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.076
- 41.1%Success rate39.7%
- +0.009EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.037
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.18CPOE-3.82
- 35.5%Third-down rate33.7%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.33
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 10/27 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2/6 | 53 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 9 | 6 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 11 | 38 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 15/25 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Thad Lewis | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.31