2013 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

0·19

Bills

Buffalo

QB Thaddeus Lewis

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 41°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

42

Model margin

+7.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.076
  • 41.1%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.037
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.18CPOE-3.82
  • 35.5%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.33
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:01615Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:22512Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:28568Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 6:4236Punt0–3
BUFQ1 5:3839Punt0–3
MIAQ1 4:103-3Punt0–3
BUFQ1 3:051062Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 13:1854Punt0–10
BUFQ2 10:33950Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 6:381031Punt0–10
BUFQ2 1:1232Punt0–10
MIAQ2 0:4536Punt0–10
BUFQ2 0:0200End of half0–10
BUFQ3 15:00628Punt0–10
MIAQ3 12:023-5Punt0–10
BUFQ3 10:28316Punt0–10
MIAQ3 8:36511Punt0–10
BUFQ3 6:171887Field goal0–13
MIAQ4 12:01446Turnover0–13
BUFQ4 10:31644Field goal0–16
MIAQ4 6:4330Punt0–16
BUFQ4 6:1133Punt0–16
MIAQ4 5:414-8Turnover on downs0–16
BUFQ4 4:4439Field goal0–19
MIAQ4 2:2633Turnover0–19
BUFQ4 1:4500End of half0–19

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill10/278200
Matt Moore2/65302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller382.70
Daniel Thomas960.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline210530
Mike Wallace411380
Charles Clay47320
Rishard Matthews1290
Daniel Thomas1230

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Thad Lewis15/2519301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson181055.81
C.J. Spiller21834.00
Thad Lewis8131.60
Trevor Graham1-2-2.00
Marquise Goodwin1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods35700
Scott Chandler23310
Trevor Graham25270
C.J. Spiller34260
Lee Smith11240
Chris Hogan2380
Fred Jackson2270
Marcus Easley0100
Marquise Goodwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.31