Closing spread
PIT -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.001
- 39.2%Success rate42.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.173
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.79CPOE+3.30
- 34.9%Third-down rate37.6%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.27Points / drive1.82
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/41 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Baker | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 7 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Josh Cooper | 5 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Edwin Baker | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/31 | 179 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 14 | 87 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derek Moye | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.69