2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

7·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -9.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.001
  • 39.2%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.173
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.79CPOE+3.30
  • 34.9%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.82
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:29962Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:531150Turnover0–7
PITQ1 4:0529Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 3:3446Turnover on downs0–7
PITQ1 1:5431Punt0–7
CLEQ2 14:5438Punt0–7
PITQ2 12:391577Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 4:22637Punt0–14
PITQ2 1:03535End of half0–14
PITQ3 15:0039Punt0–14
CLEQ3 13:21938Turnover on downs0–14
PITQ3 9:031054Field goal0–17
CLEQ3 3:501166Turnover on downs0–17
PITQ4 14:08425Turnover0–17
CLEQ4 12:073-8Punt0–17
PITQ4 10:3238Field goal0–20
CLEQ4 8:2637Punt0–20
PITQ4 7:3139Punt0–20
CLEQ4 5:43970Touchdown7–20
PITQ4 2:4636Punt7–20
CLEQ4 1:38423Turnover7–20
PITQ4 0:5500End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell23/4124011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edwin Baker18693.80
Jason Campbell166.00
MarQueis Gray144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon710820
Jordan Cameron57690
Fozzy Whittaker25381
Josh Cooper58340
Chris Ogbonnaya1290
Greg Little1490
Gary Barnidge0100
Brian Tyms0100
MarQueis Gray0100
Edwin Baker22-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/3117912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell20904.51
Felix Jones2115.50
Jonathan Dwyer3103.30
Ben Roethlisberger492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown914870
Emmanuel Sanders24260
Jerricho Cotchery36251
Heath Miller22170
Jonathan Dwyer1190
Will Johnson1190
Le'Veon Bell1160
Derek Moye0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.69