Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutDerek WolfeDEIllness· Limited
- OutSteve VallosCConcussion· DNP
- OutWes WelkerWRConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableKayvon WebsterCBThumb· Limited
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableDemaryius ThomasWRNeck· Full
- ProbableEric DeckerWRThigh· Full
- ProbableJacob TammeTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJoel DreessenTEKnee· Full
- ProbablePeyton ManningQBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTrindon HollidayWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableVirgil GreenTEKnee· Full
- ProbableWinston JusticeTFinger· Full
Raiders
- QuestionableMike JenkinsCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTracy PorterCBHip· Limited
- ProbableDenarius MooreWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableJeremy StewartRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMenelik WatsonTCalf· Full
- ProbableMike BrisielGKnee· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:59 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:53 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:39 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:25 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:37 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:16 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:37 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 24–0 |
| DEN | Q2 3:26 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–0 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 31–0 |
| LV | Q3 10:55 | 3 | 1 | Missed field goal | 31–0 |
| DEN | Q3 9:26 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 31–0 |
| LV | Q3 6:13 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 31–0 |
| DEN | Q3 4:01 | 10 | 48 | Punt | 31–0 |
| LV | Q4 13:23 | 11 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 31–0 |
| DEN | Q4 9:33 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 34–0 |
| LV | Q4 6:36 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 34–7 |
| DEN | Q4 4:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 34–7 |
| LV | Q4 3:13 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 34–14 |
| DEN | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/28 | 266 | 4 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 9/13 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 10 | 72 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 6 | 113 | 2 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.