Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/28 | 266 | 4 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 9/13 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montee Ball | 10 | 72 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 6 | 113 | 2 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.