Closing spread
IND -11
Total
45
Model margin
+5.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.047
- 38.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.13CPOE-1.44
- 31.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.89
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 30/51 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Taylor | 8 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 6 | 14 | 50 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Lamaar Thomas | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Noble | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 26/37 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3/4 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 11 | 15 | 155 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 4 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Da'Rick Rogers | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.65