2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

10·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -11

Total

45

Model margin

+5.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.047
  • 38.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.13CPOE-1.44
  • 31.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.89
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:00321Turnover0–0
INDQ1 13:53837Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:453-8Punt0–7
INDQ1 9:50754Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 7:3039Punt0–14
INDQ1 5:491174Field goal0–17
JAXQ1 1:221041Field goal3–17
INDQ2 11:551041Punt3–17
JAXQ2 6:14517Punt3–17
INDQ2 4:243-2Punt3–17
JAXQ2 2:59846Turnover3–17
INDQ2 0:53531Field goal3–20
INDQ3 15:00775Touchdown3–27
JAXQ3 10:3933Punt3–27
INDQ3 9:5237Punt3–27
JAXQ3 7:59743Turnover on downs3–27
INDQ3 5:01620Punt3–27
JAXQ3 0:41931Punt3–27
INDQ4 11:49633Field goal3–30
JAXQ4 8:001056Turnover on downs3–30
INDQ4 2:59310Punt3–30
JAXQ4 1:52991Touchdown10–30
INDQ4 0:1600End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne30/5133111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew13393.00
Jordan Todman231.50
Chad Henne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kerry Taylor89751
Marcedes Lewis36700
Maurice Jones-Drew56510
Ace Sanders614500
Mike Brown35430
Lamaar Thomas12180
Jordan Todman13120
Clay Harbor22110
Danny Noble1210

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck26/3728210
Matt Hasselbeck3/42500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown12312.61
Trent Richardson8253.11
Tashard Choice5183.60
Andrew Luck273.50
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton11151550
Griff Whalen47321
Coby Fleener14250
Da'Rick Rogers22200
Weslye Saunders12180
Trent Richardson22170
LaVon Brazill11110
Tashard Choice1150
Donald Brown3340
Jack Doyle1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.65