2013 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -11
Total
47
Model margin
+6.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.115
- 37.6%Success rate47.2%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.72CPOE+5.36
- 31.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.34Points / drive2.21
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 22/41 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiquan Underwood | 5 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Timothy Wright | 5 | 10 | 58 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 12 | 35 | 0 |
| Michael Hill | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/31 | 381 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11