2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

17·42

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -11

Total

47

Model margin

+6.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.115
  • 37.6%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.72CPOE+5.36
  • 31.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.21
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00980Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:15462Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 8:40990Touchdown7–14
TBQ1 3:08615Punt7–14
NOQ2 14:51832Punt7–14
TBQ2 10:1235Punt7–14
NOQ2 9:33557Touchdown7–21
TBQ2 8:04980Touchdown14–21
NOQ2 3:28380Touchdown14–28
TBQ2 2:401233Turnover on downs14–28
NOQ2 0:2100End of half14–28
TBQ3 15:001474Field goal17–28
NOQ3 6:351092Touchdown17–35
TBQ3 1:2210Turnover17–35
NOQ3 1:13425Touchdown17–42
TBQ4 14:0858Punt17–42
NOQ4 12:2133Punt17–42
TBQ4 10:4142Turnover on downs17–42
NOQ4 10:0047Punt17–42
TBQ4 6:5330Punt17–42
NOQ4 6:3231Punt17–42
TBQ4 4:0248Punt17–42
NOQ4 2:3134Turnover on downs17–42
TBQ4 0:2813End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon22/4121921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Leonard5357.00
Bobby Rainey11353.20
Michael Hill133.00
Timothy Wright122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiquan Underwood57931
Timothy Wright510581
Vincent Jackson412350
Michael Hill22230
Chris Owusu1250
Brian Leonard3310
Bobby Rainey1210

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3138140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson12504.20
Pierre Thomas7202.91
Mark Ingram3206.70
Drew Brees284.01
Darren Sproles3-1-0.30
Luke McCown1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills11761
Lance Moore45731
Jimmy Graham58711
Marques Colston66670
Robert Meachem11411
Darren Sproles24300
Josh Hill1180
Benjamin Watson1270
Pierre Thomas1130
Mark Ingram1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.11