Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
55
Model margin
+6.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJeromey ClaryGShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableNick HardwickCNeck· Limited
- QuestionableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSean LissemoreDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableEric WeddleSHamstring· Full
- ProbableKendall ReyesDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableKing DunlapTAnkle· Full
Broncos
- OutDerek WolfeDEIllness· DNP
- LimitedMike AdamsSThigh
- ProbableChamp BaileyCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableDuke IhenachoSConcussion· Full
- ProbableJoel DreessenTEKnee· Full
- ProbableKayvon WebsterCBThumb· Full
- ProbablePeyton ManningQBAnkle· Full
- ProbableSteve VallosCConcussion· Full
- ProbableWes WelkerWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableWinston JusticeTFinger· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:26 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 0:16 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:09 | 5 | 21 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:13 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 6:00 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q2 3:19 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q3 9:35 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q3 6:19 | 7 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:07 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q4 12:59 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q4 8:12 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q4 5:43 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 5:40 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q4 3:53 | 9 | 46 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/36 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 23 | 82 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.