Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
55
Model margin
+6.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/36 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 23 | 82 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.