2014 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Derek Anderson

20·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -5.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-4.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.111
  • 44.6%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.27CPOE-1.50
  • 41.1%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.33
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:55622Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:041048Punt0–0
TBQ1 3:39356Turnover0–0
CARQ1 1:591572Touchdown7–0
TBQ2 7:5935Punt7–0
CARQ2 6:12535Punt7–0
TBQ2 2:5031Punt7–0
CARQ2 1:53842Field goal10–0
TBQ3 15:001244Punt10–0
CARQ3 8:00523Punt10–0
TBQ3 4:4478Turnover10–0
CARQ3 0:58437Touchdown17–0
TBQ4 14:5339Punt17–0
CARQ4 13:06740Missed field goal17–0
TBQ4 9:34647Touchdown17–7
CARQ4 7:23415Punt17–7
TBQ4 4:23961Touchdown17–14
CARQ4 2:0636Punt17–14
TBQ4 1:3612Turnover17–14
CARQ4 1:2738Field goal20–14
TBQ4 0:2339End of half20–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson24/3423020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams14725.10
Jonathan Stewart9202.20
Derek Anderson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin68921
Greg Olsen811831
Jerricho Cotchery44320
Jonathan Stewart33170
DeAngelo Williams0100
Jason Avant1100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown22/3518322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh McCown3279.00
Bobby Rainey4123.00
Doug Martin991.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Myers68410
Mike Evans59370
Vincent Jackson49360
Austin Seferian-Jenkins12260
Chris Owusu22201
Luke Stocker1180
Bobby Rainey2281
Doug Martin1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.5%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.83
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.77