2014 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.111
- 44.6%Success rate38.5%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.27CPOE-1.50
- 41.1%Third-down rate36.6%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.63Points / drive1.33
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 24/34 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/35 | 183 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Myers | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.77