2014 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

23·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 74°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.069
  • 42.0%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +0.60CPOE-0.77
  • 39.7%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.21
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:001154Field goal3–0
BALQ1 10:25616Punt3–0
CINQ1 7:49531Punt3–0
BALQ1 5:0533Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:07525Field goal6–0
BALQ1 1:2539Punt6–0
CINQ2 14:531042Field goal9–0
BALQ2 10:1388Missed field goal9–0
CINQ2 7:51727Field goal12–0
BALQ2 4:3613Turnover12–0
CINQ2 4:30413Field goal15–0
BALQ2 2:071361End of half15–0
BALQ3 15:00831Punt15–0
CINQ3 11:58763Missed field goal15–0
BALQ3 8:5520Turnover15–0
CINQ3 8:42617Punt15–0
BALQ3 6:451082Touchdown15–7
CINQ3 2:2038Punt15–7
BALQ3 0:511348Field goal15–10
CINQ4 10:28422Punt15–10
BALQ4 8:297102Touchdown15–16
CINQ4 5:46280Touchdown23–16
BALQ4 4:581360Turnover on downs23–16
CINQ4 0:5500End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/3830110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard14483.40
Jeremy Hill4194.80
A.J. Green155.00
Mohamed Sanu144.00
Andy Dalton630.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green691311
Giovani Bernard610620
Tyler Eifert33370
Mohamed Sanu45360
Brandon Tate46190
Jermaine Gresham25160

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco35/6234511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett11706.41
Bernard Pierce6172.80
Joe Flacco372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith7151181
Dennis Pitta1014830
Torrey Smith37500
Owen Daniels46340
Kamar Aiken44300
Jacoby Jones27160
Justin Forsett56140
Marlon Brown0100
Lorenzo Taliaferro0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.75