Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.069
- 42.0%Success rate44.2%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- +0.60CPOE-0.77
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.5%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.86Points / drive2.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/38 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 35/62 | 345 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 15 | 118 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 10 | 14 | 83 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75