Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.118
- 38.1%Success rate48.4%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -7.11CPOE+5.59
- 29.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.44Points / drive2.26
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 18/30 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 8 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/34 | 365 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 109 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 6 | 7 | 97 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.62