2014 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

27·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.118
  • 38.1%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -7.11CPOE+5.59
  • 29.9%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.26
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00977Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 9:58859Field goal3–3
PITQ1 5:39980Touchdown3–10
CLEQ1 0:5039Punt3–10
PITQ2 14:4320Turnover3–10
CLEQ2 14:303-7Punt3–10
PITQ2 13:01689Touchdown3–17
CLEQ2 9:4935Punt3–17
PITQ2 8:31250Touchdown3–24
CLEQ2 7:43534Punt3–24
PITQ2 4:5739Punt3–24
CLEQ2 3:0131Punt3–24
PITQ2 1:44959Field goal3–27
CLEQ3 15:00665Touchdown10–27
PITQ3 13:2734Punt10–27
CLEQ3 11:36754Touchdown17–27
PITQ3 9:05732Punt17–27
CLEQ3 4:421175Field goal20–27
PITQ4 14:573-5Punt20–27
CLEQ4 13:50751Touchdown27–27
PITQ4 11:15840Punt27–27
CLEQ4 7:13854Punt27–27
PITQ4 4:26535Punt27–27
CLEQ4 1:533-11Punt27–27
PITQ4 0:47333Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer18/3022210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West161006.30
Ben Tate6416.80
Isaiah Crowell5326.42
Travis Benjamin11010.00
Taylor Gabriel188.00
Ray Agnew122.00
Brian Hoyer1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins810870
Jordan Cameron25470
Jim Dray22300
Miles Austin23200
Travis Benjamin23201
Gary Barnidge12130
Taylor Gabriel1550

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3436511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell211095.21
Ben Roethlisberger382.70
LeGarrette Blount461.51
Dri Archer144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown561161
Markus Wheaton67970
Le'Veon Bell67880
Justin Brown34380
Heath Miller34260
LeGarrette Blount0100
Will Johnson0100
Dri Archer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.62