Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.019
- 46.4%Success rate48.7%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.063
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.32CPOE+2.14
- 45.6%Third-down rate41.5%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 2.38Points / drive1.97
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/56 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 11 | 40 | 1 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 5 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/32 | 178 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 24 | 134 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Gator Hoskins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76