2014 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·33

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.019
  • 46.4%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.063
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.32CPOE+2.14
  • 45.6%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.97
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:36415Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 11:461474Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 5:10312Turnover7–7
NEQ1 3:39721Field goal10–7
MIAQ1 0:47637Turnover10–7
NEQ2 12:561194Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 8:37540Turnover17–7
NEQ2 7:1431Punt17–7
MIAQ2 6:241035Field goal17–10
NEQ2 1:59952Field goal20–10
MIAQ2 0:0600End of half20–10
MIAQ3 15:00856Field goal20–13
NEQ3 10:46414Turnover20–13
MIAQ3 8:59434Touchdown20–20
NEQ3 6:5532Punt20–20
MIAQ3 5:531060Field goal20–23
NEQ3 2:38612Punt20–23
MIAQ4 14:4830Punt20–23
NEQ4 14:023-5Punt20–23
MIAQ4 12:353-2Punt20–23
NEQ4 11:02411Punt20–23
MIAQ4 9:301370Touchdown20–30
NEQ4 3:294-4Turnover20–30
MIAQ4 3:0435Field goal20–33
NEQ4 2:441537Turnover on downs20–33
MIAQ4 0:0800End of half20–33

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/5624910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen7365.11
Julian Edelman22110.50
Stevan Ridley8212.60
Brandon Bolden284.00
Tom Brady133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman68950
Rob Gronkowski411401
Kenbrell Thompkins510370
Shane Vereen58350
Danny Amendola35160
Timothy Wright33150
Stevan Ridley2270
Brandon Bolden1340
Brandon LaFell0600

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/3217821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno241345.61
Lamar Miller11595.40
Ryan Tannehill3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace711811
Charles Clay26270
Brian Hartline24260
Lamar Miller45191
Brandon Gibson1190
Dion Sims1390
Gator Hoskins1170
Jarvis Landry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76