Closing spread
NO -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutErik LorigRBAnkle· DNP
- OutMarcus BallSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKenny StillsWRQuadricep· Limited
Falcons
- ProbableCorey PetersDTAchilles· Full
- ProbableDezmen SouthwardSConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.007
- 47.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.60CPOE+1.47
- 48.2%Third-down rate44.6%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 2.11Points / drive1.87
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 77 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:38 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:39 | 8 | 79 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:56 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| ATL | Q2 11:46 | 17 | 93 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:06 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:20 | 2 | 58 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| NO | Q3 9:22 | 7 | -3 | Punt | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q3 7:07 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NO | Q3 5:37 | 5 | 66 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q3 2:52 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| NO | Q3 0:21 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| ATL | Q4 8:46 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 27–24 |
| NO | Q4 7:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–24 |
| ATL | Q4 6:16 | 8 | 94 | Touchdown | 27–31 |
| NO | Q4 2:50 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 34–31 |
| ATL | Q4 1:20 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 34–34 |
| NO | OT | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 34–34 |
| ATL | OT | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 34–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/42 | 333 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 8 | 110 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/43 | 448 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 9 | 116 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 6 | 99 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 3 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25