2014 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

6·26

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 82°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.069
  • 48.4%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +5.59CPOE-0.77
  • 45.6%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.21
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:001454Turnover0–0
BALQ1 6:531347Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 0:27419Punt0–7
BALQ2 13:331165Field goal0–10
PITQ2 8:011073Field goal3–10
BALQ2 2:503-3Punt3–10
PITQ2 1:40737Punt3–10
BALQ2 0:2900End of half3–10
BALQ3 15:0041Punt3–10
PITQ3 13:26527Field goal6–10
BALQ3 10:301375Touchdown6–17
PITQ3 3:5832Punt6–17
BALQ3 3:02943Field goal6–20
PITQ4 14:1115Turnover6–20
BALQ4 14:00516Field goal6–23
PITQ4 11:14612Punt6–23
BALQ4 9:28761Field goal6–26
PITQ4 4:31972Turnover6–26
BALQ4 1:51220End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3721701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell11595.40
Markus Wheaton22211.00
Antonio Brown2105.00
LeGarrette Blount382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown712900
Le'Veon Bell55480
Markus Wheaton58380
Heath Miller47350
Justin Brown1460
LeGarrette Blount0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/2916620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce22964.40
Justin Forsett8567.00
Joe Flacco530.60
Jacoby Jones122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith610710
Dennis Pitta34300
Owen Daniels55282
Justin Forsett44160
Torrey Smith13100
Bernard Pierce1270
Jacoby Jones1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.86