Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.069
- 48.4%Success rate44.2%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.6%
- +5.59CPOE-0.77
- 45.6%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.26Points / drive2.21
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/37 | 217 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/29 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 5 | 28 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86