2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

7·19

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -1.5

Total

51

Model margin

+1.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.006
  • 47.1%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.159
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.68CPOE-4.76
  • 47.1%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.79
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:3723Opp touchdown0–7
GBQ1 12:0237Punt0–7
DETQ1 10:4635Punt0–7
GBQ1 9:2258Punt0–7
DETQ1 7:14626Turnover0–7
GBQ1 3:46954Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 0:39531Turnover7–9
GBQ2 13:261-1Safety7–9
DETQ2 13:211243Field goal7–12
GBQ2 6:16940Punt7–12
DETQ2 1:53767Missed field goal7–12
GBQ3 15:00520Punt7–12
DETQ3 12:401469Turnover7–12
GBQ3 5:401022Punt7–12
DETQ3 1:331170Touchdown7–19
GBQ4 10:40970Turnover on downs7–19
DETQ4 6:54932End of half7–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/2716210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks8384.80
Eddie Lacy11363.30
DuJuan Harris320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson57590
Andrew Quarless45431
Randall Cobb36290
Jarrett Boykin14110
Davante Adams23110
Eddie Lacy1190
James Starks0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3424602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush12615.11
Joique Bell15332.20
Theo Riddick3165.30
Matthew Stafford681.30
Jeremy Ross1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson610820
Corey Fuller12520
Golden Tate57510
Reggie Bush68380
Jeremy Ross33200
Joseph Fauria1230
Brandon Pettigrew0100
Eric Ebron0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.17