Closing spread
DET -1.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.006
- 47.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.317EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.159
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.68CPOE-4.76
- 47.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.59Points / drive1.79
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/27 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/34 | 246 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17