Closing spread
IND -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play-0.161
- 45.9%Success rate37.6%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.10CPOE-7.00
- 42.2%Third-down rate32.0%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.01Points / drive0.97
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 31/39 | 370 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 14/24 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
| Chad Henne | 4/7 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcel Jensen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mickey Shuler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.51
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.52