2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

44·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.029EPA / play-0.161
  • 45.9%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.10CPOE-7.00
  • 42.2%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive0.97
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:001150Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:3739Punt3–0
INDQ1 7:36969Touchdown10–0
JAXQ1 1:5037Punt10–0
INDQ1 0:55776Touchdown17–0
JAXQ2 12:283-2Punt17–0
INDQ2 11:15533Field goal20–0
JAXQ2 9:08714Punt20–0
INDQ2 5:24873Field goal23–0
JAXQ2 1:10114Turnover23–0
INDQ2 0:59429Touchdown30–0
JAXQ2 0:28113End of half30–0
JAXQ3 15:001034Punt30–0
INDQ3 11:37629Punt30–0
JAXQ3 8:20759Field goal30–3
INDQ3 5:13986Turnover on downs30–3
JAXQ3 0:32812Turnover30–3
INDQ4 13:351064Touchdown37–3
JAXQ4 8:53580Touchdown37–10
INDQ4 6:51521Punt37–10
JAXQ4 4:14424Opp touchdown44–10
JAXQ4 2:58880Touchdown44–17
INDQ4 0:1800End of half44–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck31/3937040
Matt Hasselbeck2/42000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw9657.20
Trent Richardson14574.10
Andrew Luck3155.00
Donte Moncrief177.00
Dan Herron111.00
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton56800
Reggie Wayne45620
Donte Moncrief45550
Hakeem Nicks44501
Coby Fleener47491
Dwayne Allen46431
Trent Richardson34230
Ahmad Bradshaw23181
Jack Doyle33100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles14/2422322
Chad Henne4/73300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson8334.10
Toby Gerhart9323.60
Blake Bortles23015.00
Jordan Todman11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson710790
Allen Hurns13631
Cecil Shorts510351
Toby Gerhart22310
Mike Brown11140
Marcel Jensen1180
Mickey Shuler0100
Jordan Todman0100
Denard Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.51
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.52