Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play+0.029
- 39.5%Success rate45.9%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.221
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.82CPOE+1.10
- 29.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.18Points / drive2.01
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 12/23 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 2/5 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 29/41 | 393 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 8 | 119 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.82