2014 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Charlie Whitehurst

17·41

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.122EPA / play+0.029
  • 39.5%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.221
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.82CPOE+1.10
  • 29.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.01
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:001255Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:57428Turnover0–0
INDQ1 7:40238Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 7:0600Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 7:041154Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 0:52429Turnover0–14
INDQ2 14:43945Field goal0–17
TENQ2 10:2533Punt0–17
INDQ2 9:0432Punt0–17
TENQ2 8:04551Field goal3–17
INDQ2 6:24965Field goal3–20
TENQ2 1:5348Punt3–20
INDQ2 1:1925Turnover3–20
TENQ2 0:45325Touchdown10–20
INDQ2 0:1300End of half10–20
TENQ3 15:00621Punt10–20
INDQ3 12:19991Touchdown10–27
TENQ3 8:153-5Punt10–27
INDQ3 6:06537Touchdown10–34
TENQ3 4:02877Touchdown17–34
INDQ3 0:351080Touchdown17–41
TENQ4 9:5637Punt17–41
INDQ4 9:1035Punt17–41
TENQ4 7:26312Punt17–41
INDQ4 6:38724Punt17–41
TENQ4 1:5225Turnover17–41
INDQ4 1:3700End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst12/2317711
Zach Mettenberger2/51701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Whitehurst5408.00
Bishop Sankey6345.71
Shonn Greene3103.30
Dexter McCluster210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker57841
Kendall Wright58550
Bishop Sankey22230
Nate Washington14200
Justin Hunter15120
Dexter McCluster0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck29/4139341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson20472.41
Ahmad Bradshaw9323.60
Dan Herron7243.40
T.Y. Hilton155.00
Andrew Luck1-1-1.00
Matt Hasselbeck3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne781191
T.Y. Hilton6101050
Trent Richardson45520
Dwayne Allen33381
Coby Fleener23261
Ahmad Bradshaw22201
Donte Moncrief22140
Hakeem Nicks26120
Jack Doyle1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.82