2014 · Week 5 · Division
Final / OT
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.067
- 38.5%Success rate47.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.50CPOE+3.60
- 36.6%Third-down rate48.2%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.33Points / drive2.11
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 19/32 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 8 | 12 | 144 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Herron | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/57 | 371 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26