2014 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

31·37

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -11

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.067
  • 38.5%Success rate47.9%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.50CPOE+3.60
  • 36.6%Third-down rate48.2%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.11
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:4632Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:46548Field goal0–3
TBQ1 9:46825Punt0–3
NOQ1 5:451187Field goal0–6
TBQ1 0:216-1Punt0–6
NOQ2 13:13755Touchdown0–13
TBQ2 10:14333Turnover0–13
NOQ2 8:39626Punt0–13
TBQ2 5:18835Field goal3–13
NOQ2 1:54412Turnover3–13
TBQ2 1:21440Touchdown10–13
NOQ2 0:2000End of half10–13
TBQ3 15:00865Touchdown17–13
NOQ3 11:5934Opp touchdown24–13
NOQ3 11:201358Touchdown24–20
TBQ3 4:571286Touchdown31–20
NOQ4 13:281073Touchdown31–26
TBQ4 9:284-1Safety31–28
NOQ4 6:44734Field goal31–31
TBQ4 2:30614Punt31–31
NOQ4 1:05520Turnover31–31
TBQ4 0:16116End of half31–31
NOOT1375Touchdown31–37

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon19/3224921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin14453.20
Bobby Rainey6213.51
Mike Glennon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson8121440
Louis Murphy37351
Doug Martin35290
Bobby Rainey34210
Austin Seferian-Jenkins13110
Robert Herron1191

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees35/5737123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson21894.21
Pierre Thomas4358.81
Brandin Cooks2157.50
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Thomas810771
Marques Colston36630
Brandin Cooks911560
Josh Hill33530
Benjamin Watson57430
Jimmy Graham25360
Travaris Cadet35191
Kenny Stills13160
Khiry Robinson1280
Robert Meachem0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.92
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26