Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
43
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.034
- 41.8%Success rate42.2%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -4.76CPOE-2.18
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.59
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/33 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| George Winn | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 12 | 44 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/37 | 188 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.33