2014 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

17·3

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

43

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.034
  • 41.8%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -4.76CPOE-2.18
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.59
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 11:06744Turnover7–0
DETQ1 7:34617Punt7–0
MINQ1 4:3030Punt7–0
DETQ1 2:35423Missed field goal7–0
MINQ2 14:553-4Punt7–0
DETQ2 13:35415Punt7–0
MINQ2 12:1462Punt7–0
DETQ2 8:44619Punt7–0
MINQ2 6:14412Punt7–0
DETQ2 4:1631Punt7–0
MINQ2 2:1656Punt7–0
DETQ2 1:2930Punt7–0
MINQ2 0:58218Turnover7–0
DETQ2 0:45417Field goal10–0
MINQ2 0:0700End of half10–0
MINQ3 15:00834Turnover10–0
DETQ3 11:35726Missed field goal10–0
MINQ3 6:4831Punt10–0
DETQ3 4:381650Touchdown17–0
MINQ4 11:4439Punt17–0
DETQ4 10:1432Punt17–0
MINQ4 9:141255Field goal17–3
DETQ4 4:5331Punt17–3
MINQ4 3:134-6Turnover on downs17–3
DETQ4 2:1444Turnover on downs17–3
MINQ4 1:52742End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3318510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell18744.11
George Winn5163.20
Theo Riddick362.00
Matthew Stafford111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Theo Riddick56751
Golden Tate712440
Joique Bell23230
Eric Ebron24230
Corey Fuller25120
Jeremy Ross1380

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3718803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon11403.60
Jarius Wright12121.00
Teddy Bridgewater3113.70
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00
Matt Asiata2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon66420
Chase Ford45370
Greg Jennings36330
Charles D. Johnson23220
Matt Asiata12180
Jarius Wright46170
Cordarrelle Patterson28150
Rhett Ellison1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.33