Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.069
- 48.4%Success rate38.1%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.59CPOE-7.11
- 45.6%Third-down rate29.9%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.26Points / drive1.44
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/42 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 4 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 8/17 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 77 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 5 | 102 | 1 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.65