2014 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

10·31

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.069
  • 48.4%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.59CPOE-7.11
  • 45.6%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.44
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:493-10Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:201039Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 5:0932Punt3–0
PITQ1 3:371033Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ2 13:36568Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 11:4534Punt3–7
CLEQ2 10:43455Touchdown3–14
PITQ2 9:35424Punt3–14
CLEQ2 7:341185Touchdown3–21
PITQ2 2:27634Punt3–21
CLEQ2 1:2732Punt3–21
PITQ2 0:23439End of half3–21
CLEQ3 15:00644Punt3–21
PITQ3 12:181252Punt3–21
CLEQ3 6:15564Field goal3–24
PITQ3 3:23313Turnover3–24
CLEQ3 2:04927Touchdown3–31
PITQ4 12:4736Punt3–31
CLEQ4 11:58214Turnover3–31
PITQ4 11:111344Turnover on downs3–31
CLEQ4 6:46514Punt3–31
PITQ4 3:39559Touchdown10–31
CLEQ4 2:3633Punt10–31
PITQ4 1:3734Punt10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/4222811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18824.60
LeGarrette Blount8273.40
Dri Archer3248.00
Ben Roethlisberger177.00
Antonio Brown1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7101180
Markus Wheaton411330
Lance Moore16261
Le'Veon Bell46230
Heath Miller24190
Justin Brown2490
Dri Archer1100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer8/1721710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate25783.12
Isaiah Crowell11777.01
Travis Benjamin133.00
Brian Hoyer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron351021
Jim Dray11310
Travis Benjamin11310
Miles Austin23290
Taylor Gabriel14240
Andrew Hawkins0200
Ray Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.65