2014 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

25·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.090
  • 40.5%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -3.58CPOE+1.32
  • 39.3%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.38
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00480Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 13:311286Field goal3–7
NEQ1 6:2935Punt3–7
NYJQ1 5:411151Field goal6–7
NEQ1 0:1937Punt6–7
NYJQ2 14:101227Field goal9–7
NEQ2 7:521085Touchdown9–14
NYJQ2 4:22832Field goal12–14
NEQ2 1:01931Field goal12–17
NYJQ3 15:001182Touchdown19–17
NEQ3 8:581143Field goal19–20
NYJQ3 4:10419Punt19–20
NEQ3 1:3736Punt19–20
NYJQ3 0:443-10Punt19–20
NEQ4 13:3034Punt19–20
NYJQ4 12:2957Punt19–20
NEQ4 10:51861Touchdown19–27
NYJQ4 7:491381Touchdown25–27
NEQ4 2:3131Punt25–27
NYJQ4 1:06648Missed field goal25–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3422610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory211075.11
Chris Johnson13614.70
Geno Smith7375.30
Bilal Powell177.00
Mike Vick166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker47650
Jeff Cumberland34501
Jeremy Kerley25290
Jace Amaro35220
Chris Johnson23190
Chris Ivory44180
Bilal Powell12120
David Nelson12110
Trevor Graham0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3726130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen11433.90
Jonas Gray3124.00
Julian Edelman188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shane Vereen58712
Rob Gronkowski510680
Brandon LaFell45550
Julian Edelman49440
Danny Amendola13191
Brandon Bolden1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.49