Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.090
- 40.5%Success rate46.4%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.58CPOE+1.32
- 39.3%Third-down rate45.6%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.41Points / drive2.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/34 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 21 | 107 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/37 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 8 | 71 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.49