2014 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

24·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.2%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.020
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.77CPOE+0.60
  • 41.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:011889Turnover on downs0–7
CINQ1 1:1734Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:451029Field goal3–7
CINQ2 9:15822Punt3–7
BALQ2 4:34830Field goal6–7
CINQ2 1:02534Punt6–7
BALQ2 0:0500End of half6–7
BALQ3 15:00322Turnover6–7
CINQ3 13:44945Touchdown6–14
BALQ3 9:5639Turnover6–14
CINQ3 8:2834Field goal6–17
BALQ3 6:29979Touchdown14–17
CINQ3 1:581165Field goal14–20
BALQ4 11:2438Punt14–20
CINQ4 10:19817Turnover20–20
BALQ4 6:3618Touchdown21–20
CINQ4 6:3110Turnover21–20
BALQ4 6:1238Field goal24–20
CINQ4 3:591080Touchdown24–27
BALQ4 0:57513Turnover on downs24–27
CINQ4 0:1000End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/3419502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett17684.00
Lorenzo Taliaferro7273.92
Joe Flacco2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lorenzo Taliaferro23420
Michael Campanaro33400
Steve Smith39350
Crockett Gillmore22230
Justin Forsett35170
Kamar Aiken26150
Marlon Brown1120
Jacoby Jones0100
Torrey Smith0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2826601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard16452.81
Mohamed Sanu22713.50
Jeremy Hill10252.50
Andy Dalton6142.32

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu591250
Greg Little35420
Jermaine Gresham44340
Brandon Tate22300
Jeremy Hill44280
Ryan Hewitt1150
Giovani Bernard2220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.23