Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.019
- 44.2%Success rate42.0%
- +0.149EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.020
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.77CPOE+0.60
- 41.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.21Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/34 | 195 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/28 | 266 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 9 | 125 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23