2014 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

43·23

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

40

Model margin

+1.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.074
  • 41.0%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.80CPOE-3.58
  • 37.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.41
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:22859Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 9:3732Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 8:3334Punt7–0
NYJQ1 7:1231Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 6:1335Punt7–0
NYJQ1 4:5420Turnover13–0
BUFQ1 4:4011Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 4:361376Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 14:22592Touchdown21–7
NYJQ2 11:5035Punt21–7
BUFQ2 10:2934Punt21–7
NYJQ2 9:33425Turnover21–7
BUFQ2 7:343-4Field goal24–7
NYJQ2 6:161271Touchdown24–14
BUFQ2 1:503-4Punt24–14
NYJQ2 0:33221Field goal24–17
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt24–17
NYJQ3 12:243-2Punt24–17
BUFQ3 10:10314Field goal27–17
NYJQ3 8:3131Punt27–17
BUFQ3 7:1233Punt27–17
NYJQ3 5:10729Turnover27–17
BUFQ3 2:333-1Field goal30–17
NYJQ3 1:1131Turnover30–17
BUFQ3 0:16314Touchdown37–17
NYJQ4 14:1131Punt37–17
BUFQ4 12:07566Touchdown43–17
NYJQ4 9:461777Touchdown43–23
BUFQ4 4:06519End of half43–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton10/1723840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Dixon22442.00
Bryce Brown7152.10
Kyle Orton263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins361571
Robert Woods33501
Chris Hogan11140
Scott Chandler12121
Lee Smith2251
Bryce Brown0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick18/3615301
Geno Smith2/8503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick8698.60
Chris Ivory13433.32
Percy Harvin4287.00
Bilal Powell4287.01
Chris Johnson372.30
Geno Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jace Amaro55510
Eric Decker711400
Jeremy Kerley25250
Percy Harvin39220
Chris Johnson22130
Chris Owusu1170
Jeff Cumberland0300
Chris Ivory0200
Trevor Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.63