Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
40
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.074
- 41.0%Success rate40.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.80CPOE-3.58
- 37.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 10/17 | 238 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 22 | 44 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 6 | 157 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Lee Smith | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/36 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 2/8 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace Amaro | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 7 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.63