2014 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

30·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

-3.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.122
  • 40.7%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.14CPOE-2.82
  • 38.0%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.18
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:0078Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:5334Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 10:23618Punt0–3
TENQ1 7:50747Punt0–3
HOUQ1 4:04827Punt0–3
TENQ2 14:5148Punt0–3
HOUQ2 12:461254Field goal3–3
TENQ2 7:3642Punt3–3
HOUQ2 6:28244Touchdown10–3
TENQ2 6:0039Punt10–3
HOUQ2 4:2430Punt10–3
TENQ2 4:01520Turnover10–3
HOUQ2 1:52937Field goal13–3
TENQ2 0:1900End of half13–3
TENQ3 15:0030Turnover13–3
HOUQ3 13:50320Touchdown20–3
TENQ3 12:35516Punt20–3
HOUQ3 9:4811103Touchdown27–3
TENQ3 5:421083Touchdown27–9
HOUQ3 2:12749Field goal30–9
TENQ4 14:12651Turnover on downs30–9
HOUQ4 12:37934Punt30–9
TENQ4 6:1735Punt30–9
HOUQ4 5:17313Punt30–9
TENQ4 2:59682Touchdown30–16
HOUQ4 0:5600End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick19/3522710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201517.52
Alfred Blue14423.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick4123.00
Jonathan Grimes273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins511950
Andre Johnson712550
Damaris Johnson24330
Arian Foster46221
Alfred Blue11220
Garrett Graham0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger27/4129921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey9353.90
Shonn Greene111.00
Dexter McCluster210.50
Zach Mettenberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington44680
Kendall Wright35530
Leon Washington33400
Dexter McCluster44390
Delanie Walker49371
Justin Hunter410311
Bishop Sankey44250
Derek Hagan1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.9%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.04