Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.122
- 40.7%Success rate39.5%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.14CPOE-2.82
- 38.0%Third-down rate29.7%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.63Points / drive1.18
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 19/35 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 151 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Alfred Blue | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 27/41 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 4 | 10 | 31 | 1 |
| Bishop Sankey | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.9%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.04