2014 · Week 8

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

34·51

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

IND -5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.029EPA / play+0.118
  • 45.9%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.10CPOE+5.59
  • 42.2%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.26
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. PIT are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PIT
INDQ1 15:00667Field goal3–0
PITQ1 11:56980Touchdown3–7
INDQ1 7:1330Punt3–7
PITQ1 6:261386Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 14:5725Opp touchdown3–21
INDQ2 14:16781Touchdown10–21
PITQ2 11:36782Touchdown10–28
INDQ2 8:3334Punt10–28
PITQ2 7:34477Touchdown10–35
INDQ2 5:08880Touchdown17–35
PITQ2 1:56746Punt17–35
INDQ2 0:35556Field goal20–35
PITQ3 15:001080Touchdown20–42
INDQ3 9:5953Punt20–42
PITQ3 8:1838Punt20–42
INDQ3 6:44964Touchdown27–42
PITQ3 3:38116Turnover27–42
INDQ3 3:26436Touchdown34–42
PITQ3 2:351157Turnover34–42
INDQ4 12:4420Safety34–44
PITQ4 12:341272Touchdown34–51
INDQ4 5:141153Turnover34–51
PITQ4 2:48635Punt34–51
INDQ4 0:0500End of half34–51

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck26/4540032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw6355.81
Andrew Luck3268.70
Dan Herron122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton6101551
Donte Moncrief7121131
Ahmad Bradshaw77520
Hakeem Nicks15270
Griff Whalen23230
Dwayne Allen12211
Dan Herron1150
Coby Fleener1440

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger40/4952260

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell24923.80
LeGarrette Blount6213.50
Antonio Brown155.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10131332
Heath Miller781121
Martavis Bryant57832
Markus Wheaton55561
Le'Veon Bell67560
Lance Moore23330
Will Johnson22220
Darrius Heyward-Bey11160
LeGarrette Blount22110
Dri Archer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.47