Closing spread
IND -5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.118
- 45.9%Success rate48.4%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.10CPOE+5.59
- 42.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.01Points / drive2.26
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. PIT are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 26/45 | 400 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 10 | 155 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 7 | 12 | 113 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 40/49 | 522 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 13 | 133 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 7 | 8 | 112 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 5 | 7 | 83 | 2 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.47