2014 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·43

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.118
  • 44.2%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.77CPOE+5.59
  • 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00738Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:0936Punt6–0
BALQ1 9:47135Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:4135Punt7–0
BALQ1 8:3438Punt7–0
PITQ1 7:4244Punt7–0
BALQ1 5:05511Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:521019Punt7–0
BALQ2 11:24423Turnover7–0
PITQ2 9:14517Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 7:1820Turnover7–7
PITQ2 6:55330Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 5:24949Field goal10–14
PITQ2 1:44580Touchdown10–22
BALQ2 0:5332End of half10–22
PITQ3 15:0066Punt10–22
BALQ3 12:22829Punt10–22
PITQ3 7:5769Punt10–22
BALQ3 5:38633Punt10–22
PITQ3 2:39791Touchdown16–29
BALQ4 14:0100Touchdown17–29
PITQ4 13:471059Touchdown17–36
BALQ4 9:3142Punt17–36
PITQ4 7:0939Turnover17–36
BALQ4 5:331031Touchdown23–36
PITQ4 2:58441Touchdown23–43
BALQ4 1:51771End of half23–43

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco30/4530321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett9384.20
Lorenzo Taliaferro7213.00
Joe Flacco122.00
Bernard Pierce122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Forsett58670
Torrey Smith47631
Owen Daniels69530
Steve Smith58360
Lorenzo Taliaferro33340
Marlon Brown33270
Kamar Aiken11120
Crockett Gillmore1211
Phillip Supernaw11-20

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger25/3734060

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10232.30
Le'Veon Bell10202.00
Markus Wheaton144.00
Dri Archer144.00
Martavis Bryant133.00
Ben Roethlisberger210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown11161441
Markus Wheaton24621
Martavis Bryant35442
Le'Veon Bell56381
Matt Spaeth11331
Heath Miller12140
Lance Moore1140
Will Johnson1110
Dri Archer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.11