Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.118
- 44.2%Success rate48.4%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.77CPOE+5.59
- 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.21Points / drive2.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/45 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/37 | 340 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 16 | 144 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 5 | 44 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11