Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.205
- 46.7%Success rate50.2%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.029
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.37CPOE+6.21
- 37.9%Third-down rate47.1%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 2.05Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/38 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 15 | 89 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/43 | 400 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 134 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 8 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.33