2013 · CON

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

16·26

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -5

Total

56.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.205
  • 46.7%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.029
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.37CPOE+6.21
  • 37.9%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:25737Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:2237Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:50973Field goal0–3
NEQ1 3:43851Punt0–3
DENQ2 14:511688Touchdown0–10
NEQ2 7:50851Field goal3–10
DENQ2 2:54872Field goal3–13
NEQ2 0:2545End of half3–13
DENQ3 15:001480Touchdown3–20
NEQ3 7:521341Turnover on downs3–20
DENQ3 2:251080Field goal3–23
NEQ4 12:02980Touchdown10–23
DENQ4 9:26539Field goal10–26
NEQ4 7:001080Touchdown16–26
DENQ4 3:07639End of half16–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3827710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen4348.50
Stevan Ridley5173.40
Tom Brady273.51
LeGarrette Blount561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman1015891
Shane Vereen58590
Austin Collie46570
Michael Hoomanawanui23330
Aaron Dobson23330
Matthew Mulligan1160
Danny Amendola0100
Matthew Slater0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning32/4340020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14594.20
Montee Ball12433.60
Virgil Green166.00
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas7101341
Julius Thomas811850
Eric Decker58730
Wes Welker45380
Jacob Tamme22241
Knowshon Moreno22220
Montee Ball34130
Andre Caldwell11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.33