2014 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

24·3

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.019
  • 38.1%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.020
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -7.11CPOE+0.60
  • 29.9%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.86
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:00510Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 13:18518Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:40516Punt7–0
CINQ1 7:4074Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 6:18427Punt7–3
CINQ1 4:07521Punt7–3
CLEQ1 1:58859Touchdown14–3
CINQ2 12:57224Turnover14–3
CLEQ2 12:1237Punt14–3
CINQ2 11:1735Punt14–3
CLEQ2 9:551363Field goal17–3
CINQ2 3:59413Punt17–3
CLEQ2 2:26726Punt17–3
CINQ2 1:0337Punt17–3
CLEQ3 15:0034Punt17–3
CINQ3 13:347-3Punt17–3
CLEQ3 10:161162Touchdown24–3
CINQ3 4:46715Punt24–3
CLEQ3 3:24858Punt24–3
CINQ4 14:46846Turnover24–3
CLEQ4 11:34617Missed field goal24–3
CINQ4 7:5640Turnover24–3
CLEQ4 7:01518Punt24–3
CINQ4 4:34512Punt24–3
CLEQ4 3:5439Punt24–3
CINQ4 1:483-5End of half24–3

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer15/2319800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West26943.61
Isaiah Crowell12413.41
Ben Tate10343.41
Brian Hoyer410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin56480
Gary Barnidge24460
Travis Benjamin35460
Taylor Gabriel35310
Ben Tate22270
Jim Dray0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton10/338603
Jason Campbell3/6700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill12554.60
James Wright11313.00
Rex Burkhead4123.00
Andy Dalton382.70
Cedric Peerman2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham36290
A.J. Green310230
Mohamed Sanu27200
Greg Little1480
Jeremy Hill1260
Kevin Brock1240
Rex Burkhead2430
James Wright0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74