Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.019
- 38.1%Success rate42.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.020
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.11CPOE+0.60
- 29.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.86
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 15/23 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 10/33 | 86 | 0 | 3 |
| Jason Campbell | 3/6 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74