Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
42
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.076
- 42.6%Success rate41.0%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.58CPOE-1.80
- 40.0%Third-down rate37.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.99Points / drive1.48
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/29 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 15 | 98 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 8 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 29/48 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.37