2014 · Week 10

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

17·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 42°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -2

Total

42

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.6%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.58CPOE-1.80
  • 40.0%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.48
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
KCQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:51751Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 9:51947Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 5:24630Punt3–7
KCQ1 2:29533Punt3–7
BUFQ1 0:35410Punt3–7
KCQ2 14:4544Punt3–7
BUFQ2 12:3930Punt3–7
KCQ2 11:5021Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 11:06823Field goal3–10
KCQ2 7:09735Punt3–10
BUFQ2 3:44625Punt3–10
KCQ2 1:15212End of half3–10
BUFQ3 15:001171Turnover3–10
KCQ3 9:4747Punt3–10
BUFQ3 8:081073Field goal3–13
KCQ3 3:061080Touchdown10–13
BUFQ4 13:30424Punt10–13
KCQ4 11:3338Punt10–13
KCQ4 9:44226Touchdown17–13
BUFQ4 8:59531Punt17–13
KCQ4 6:5132Punt17–13
BUFQ4 4:35710Turnover on downs17–13
KCQ4 2:27621Punt17–13
BUFQ4 0:14216Turnover17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/2917700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles15986.51
Alex Smith4256.31
De'Anthony Thomas133.00
Knile Davis410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe812930
A.J. Jenkins14270
Jamaal Charles34200
Travis Kelce22190
Anthony Fasano1170
Junior Hemingway1360
Knile Davis1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton29/4825910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Dixon9626.90
Bryce Brown7355.00
Fred Jackson3103.30
Kyle Orton231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryce Brown67650
Chris Hogan57571
Robert Woods68520
Fred Jackson45390
Sammy Watkins410270
Scott Chandler36170
Lee Smith0100
Chris Gragg0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.37