Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.007
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.47CPOE-1.27
- 44.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.63
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/45 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 12 | 75 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/37 | 292 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 9 | 13 | 109 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.37