2014 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

19·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.007
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.47CPOE-1.27
  • 44.6%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.63
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:47616Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 10:1938Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:021683Field goal0–3
ATLQ2 14:571264Field goal3–3
CARQ2 9:26619Punt3–3
ATLQ2 6:25516Punt3–3
CARQ2 3:47412Punt3–3
ATLQ2 1:35848Field goal6–3
CARQ2 0:0200End of half6–3
CARQ3 15:0038Turnover6–3
ATLQ3 13:3536Field goal9–3
CARQ3 12:0737Punt9–3
ATLQ3 10:23855Touchdown16–3
CARQ3 6:3436Punt16–3
ATLQ3 5:02759Turnover16–3
CARQ3 1:58422Punt16–3
ATLQ3 0:2836Punt16–3
CARQ4 14:03418Punt16–3
ATLQ4 12:3936Punt16–3
CARQ4 11:02656Touchdown16–10
ATLQ4 9:1246Punt16–10
CARQ4 7:01269Touchdown16–17
ATLQ4 6:201154Field goal19–17
CARQ4 2:08636Missed field goal19–17
ATLQ4 1:2239Punt19–17
CARQ4 0:22339Missed field goal19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/4526810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson17412.40
Devonta Freeman6284.70
Devin Hester199.00
Matt Ryan144.00
Jacquizz Rodgers242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White812751
Julio Jones611590
Harry Douglas44460
Devin Hester33340
Levine Toilolo24230
Patrick DiMarco22140
Jacquizz Rodgers3480
Steven Jackson2360
Antone Smith1130

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3729222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams10414.10
Cam Newton5306.00
Jonathan Stewart7243.40
Fozzy Whittaker3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin9131091
Greg Olsen511610
Corey Brown12471
Jerricho Cotchery24430
Ed Dickson22200
Jonathan Stewart33150
Fozzy Whittaker0100
DeAngelo Williams11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.37