Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.019
- 41.0%Success rate48.7%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.063
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.80CPOE+2.14
- 37.3%Third-down rate41.5%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.48Points / drive1.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/39 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/34 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67