2014 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

9·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.019
  • 41.0%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.063
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.80CPOE+2.14
  • 37.3%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.97
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001473Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 6:401367Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 0:13667Turnover3–3
BUFQ2 12:501685Field goal6–3
MIAQ2 3:261034Punt6–3
BUFQ2 0:3100End of half6–3
BUFQ3 15:0033Punt6–3
MIAQ3 13:0966Punt6–3
BUFQ3 9:53844Field goal9–3
MIAQ3 6:26980Touchdown9–10
BUFQ3 2:184-4Safety9–12
MIAQ3 1:0300Missed field goal9–12
BUFQ3 0:57410Missed field goal9–12
MIAQ4 14:53631Touchdown9–18
MIAQ4 11:4918Touchdown9–19
BUFQ4 11:35524Punt9–19
MIAQ4 9:42823Punt9–19
BUFQ4 4:3742Turnover on downs9–19
MIAQ4 3:193-2Field goal9–22
BUFQ4 3:0147Turnover on downs9–22
MIAQ4 2:33311End of half9–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton22/3919300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Dixon10353.50
Bryce Brown6142.30
Sammy Watkins133.00
Kyle Orton221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan79740
Bryce Brown710570
Sammy Watkins37320
Robert Woods25150
Anthony Dixon22130
Chris Gragg1120
Scott Chandler0300
Mike Williams0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/3424020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15865.70
Daniel Thomas5234.60
Ryan Tannehill4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline34550
Jarvis Landry55461
Mike Wallace47380
Damien Williams23380
Charles Clay56310
Brandon Gibson23131
Lamar Miller22120
Dion Sims22110
Rishard Matthews0100
Ryan Tannehill11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67