Closing spread
IND -13
Total
49
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play+0.029
- 37.6%Success rate45.9%
- -0.184EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.221
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -7.00CPOE+1.10
- 32.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 0.97Points / drive2.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 15/27 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 14 | 25 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/32 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 122 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.49