2014 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

3·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -13

Total

49

Model margin

+4.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.161EPA / play+0.029
  • 37.6%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.221
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -7.00CPOE+1.10
  • 32.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 0.97Points / drive2.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00414Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 12:4222Turnover0–0
INDQ1 12:003-6Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:32523Punt0–3
INDQ1 8:214-2Turnover0–3
JAXQ1 6:4537Field goal3–3
INDQ1 4:1731Punt3–3
JAXQ1 2:2825Turnover3–3
INDQ1 1:44626Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 14:331049Punt3–3
INDQ2 9:051058Punt3–3
JAXQ2 4:00419Punt3–3
INDQ2 2:31957Field goal3–6
JAXQ2 0:1200End of half3–6
JAXQ3 15:003-11Punt3–6
INDQ3 13:391040Touchdown3–13
JAXQ3 8:3131Punt3–13
INDQ3 6:46285Touchdown3–20
JAXQ3 6:083-2Punt3–20
INDQ3 4:201062Field goal3–23
JAXQ4 14:52610Punt3–23
INDQ4 11:5332Punt3–23
JAXQ4 10:471292Turnover on downs3–23
INDQ4 5:59854End of half3–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles15/2714601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart4317.80
Denard Robinson14251.80
Blake Bortles5244.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee35520
Denard Robinson45470
Toby Gerhart34190
Jordan Todman23140
Allen Hurns14130
Cecil Shorts1360
Marcedes Lewis13-50

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3225310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron12655.40
Andrew Luck8496.10
Trent Richardson13423.21
T.Y. Hilton11515.00
Donte Moncrief144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton451221
Donte Moncrief44380
Dan Herron55310
Coby Fleener24280
Hakeem Nicks11160
Reggie Wayne39100
Jack Doyle2380
Trent Richardson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.49