Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+6.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.076
- 40.5%Success rate41.0%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- -3.58CPOE-1.80
- 39.3%Third-down rate37.3%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.41Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 10/12 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7/19 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/32 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 9 | 11 | 118 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.21
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+6.47