Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+6.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.006
- 44.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.14CPOE-4.76
- 38.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.62Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 31/48 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 11 | 109 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 9 | 13 | 71 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 11 | 42 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Senorise Perry | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 34/45 | 390 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 11 | 16 | 146 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.04