2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

17·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+6.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.006
  • 44.2%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.14CPOE-4.76
  • 38.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.79
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:20655Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 10:33752Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 6:5149Punt7–3
DETQ1 4:261-5Turnover7–3
CHIQ1 4:1825Touchdown14–3
DETQ1 3:351088Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 12:551238Punt14–10
DETQ2 7:461188Touchdown14–17
CHIQ2 3:18412Punt14–17
DETQ2 1:45564Touchdown14–24
CHIQ2 0:2400End of half14–24
CHIQ3 15:001263Field goal17–24
DETQ3 8:5433Punt17–24
CHIQ3 7:42512Punt17–24
DETQ3 5:581386Touchdown17–31
CHIQ4 14:5759Punt17–31
DETQ4 13:11632Punt17–31
CHIQ4 10:1527Turnover17–31
DETQ4 9:29520Field goal17–34
CHIQ4 6:163-3Punt17–34
DETQ4 4:59947Turnover on downs17–34
CHIQ4 1:55863Turnover17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler31/4828022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ka'Deem Carey284.00
Matt Forte561.20
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett8111090
Alshon Jeffery913712
Matt Forte69520
Brandon Marshall611420
Ka'Deem Carey1170
Marquess Wilson0200
Senorise Perry11-10

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford34/4539020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell23914.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson11161462
Golden Tate810890
Theo Riddick67540
Jeremy Ross11310
Eric Ebron34230
Corey Fuller11210
Joique Bell22160
Joseph Fauria1280
Brandon Pettigrew1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.04