Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
43
Model margin
+8.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play-0.031
- 39.5%Success rate40.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.120
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.82CPOE-2.14
- 29.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 1.18Points / drive1.63
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 13/19 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 6/12 | 91 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 9 | 132 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/33 | 358 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 9 | 238 | 2 |
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.10