2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

21·45

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

43

Model margin

+8.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.122EPA / play-0.031
  • 39.5%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.120
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.82CPOE-2.14
  • 29.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.63
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001480Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 7:3423Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 6:46420Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 4:50848Punt0–14
HOUQ2 15:00311Punt0–14
TENQ2 13:34720Punt0–14
HOUQ2 10:111590Field goal0–17
TENQ2 3:25732Punt0–17
HOUQ2 0:53258Touchdown0–24
TENQ2 0:3829End of half0–24
TENQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–24
HOUQ3 12:14617Punt7–24
TENQ3 9:0737Turnover13–24
HOUQ3 8:211-1Opp touchdown14–24
HOUQ3 8:07780Touchdown14–31
TENQ3 4:40610Punt14–31
HOUQ3 0:5831Punt14–31
TENQ4 15:0030Punt14–31
HOUQ4 14:30874Touchdown14–38
TENQ4 11:0531Turnover14–38
HOUQ4 9:47224Touchdown14–45
TENQ4 8:56859Turnover14–45
HOUQ4 5:4145Missed field goal14–45
TENQ4 3:22651Touchdown21–45
HOUQ4 1:0600End of half21–45

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger13/1918411
Jake Locker6/129112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey10424.20
Dexter McCluster9333.70
Zach Mettenberger188.00
Shonn Greene200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright791321
Nate Washington59611
Derek Hagan23390
Justin Hunter13180
Dexter McCluster23110
Leon Washington1180
Delanie Walker1360

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick24/3335860

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19794.20
Jonathan Grimes5132.60
Ryan Fitzpatrick2105.00
Alfred Blue760.90
Tom Savage2-2-1.00
Damaris Johnson1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins992382
Andre Johnson711531
Keshawn Martin11320
Arian Foster57261
Ryan Griffin1381
Damaris Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.8%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.1%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.10