Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.161
- 40.7%Success rate37.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.114
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.14CPOE-7.00
- 38.0%Third-down rate32.0%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.63Points / drive0.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/19 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 20/39 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71