2014 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

27·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.161
  • 40.7%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.114
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.14CPOE-7.00
  • 38.0%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive0.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:37721Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:1040Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:06846Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 3:39454Field goal3–7
JAXQ1 1:2237Punt3–7
HOUQ2 15:00747Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 11:451139Field goal10–10
HOUQ2 5:5332Punt10–10
JAXQ2 4:471267Field goal10–13
HOUQ2 1:0937Punt10–13
JAXQ2 0:3439End of half10–13
JAXQ3 15:0065Punt10–13
HOUQ3 11:521889Touchdown17–13
JAXQ3 3:233-1Turnover17–13
HOUQ3 2:11626Touchdown24–13
JAXQ4 14:235-5Punt24–13
HOUQ4 13:30849Field goal27–13
JAXQ4 8:39754Turnover on downs27–13
HOUQ4 5:27619Punt27–13
JAXQ4 2:46620Turnover on downs27–13
HOUQ4 2:0000End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick13/1913500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster241275.31
Ryan Fitzpatrick9151.71
Alfred Blue9151.71
Damaris Johnson11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins46490
Ryan Griffin11250
Arian Foster24210
Andre Johnson44170
Keshawn Martin13120
Damaris Johnson11110

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles20/3920511
Denard Robinson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson10303.00
Toby Gerhart5193.80
Jordan Todman3113.70
Blake Bortles3103.30
Marqise Lee144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis34690
Marqise Lee58670
Allen Hurns510361
Toby Gerhart23160
Ace Sanders1190
Jordan Todman1150
Cecil Shorts21030
Denard Robinson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.71