Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.069
- 42.0%Success rate38.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.60CPOE-7.11
- 39.7%Third-down rate29.9%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.44
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/24 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 25 | 148 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 10/18 | 80 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01