2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

30·0

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.069
  • 42.0%Success rate38.1%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +0.60CPOE-7.11
  • 39.7%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.44
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:001563Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:5339Punt7–0
CINQ1 5:36846Field goal10–0
CLEQ1 1:573-3Punt10–0
CINQ1 0:08636Touchdown17–0
CLEQ2 13:1156Turnover17–0
CINQ2 11:1437Field goal20–0
CLEQ2 10:2035Punt20–0
CINQ2 8:57526Turnover20–0
CLEQ2 6:191141Turnover20–0
CINQ2 1:0727End of half20–0
CLEQ3 15:003-6Punt20–0
CINQ3 13:06418Punt20–0
CLEQ3 10:523-3Punt20–0
CINQ3 9:141145Field goal23–0
CLEQ3 2:35741Punt23–0
CINQ4 14:14613Punt23–0
CLEQ4 10:2138Punt23–0
CINQ4 9:071486Touchdown30–0
CLEQ4 0:2319End of half30–0

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton14/2411701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill251485.92
Giovani Bernard15795.30
Rex Burkhead3144.71
Andy Dalton231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green511490
Ryan Hewitt34340
Giovani Bernard33240
Mohamed Sanu1340
Jeremy Hill1140
Kevin Brock1120
Brandon Tate0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel10/188002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West5234.60
Isaiah Crowell7172.40
Johnny Manziel5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon34480
Isaiah Crowell23100
Travis Benjamin1190
Andrew Hawkins2470
Jordan Cameron1140
Taylor Gabriel1220
Jim Dray0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01