Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.090
- 48.7%Success rate46.4%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.14CPOE+1.32
- 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.97Points / drive2.38
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 29/47 | 346 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 7 | 104 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/35 | 287 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21