2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

13·41

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.090
  • 48.7%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.14CPOE+1.32
  • 41.5%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.38
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00457Opp touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:36833Punt0–7
NEQ1 8:21642Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 5:46960Field goal3–7
NEQ1 0:59938Punt3–7
MIAQ2 12:09734Turnover3–7
NEQ2 8:4138Touchdown3–14
MIAQ2 7:59713Field goal6–14
NEQ2 4:26613Punt6–14
MIAQ2 2:07842Punt6–14
NEQ2 0:4032Punt12–14
MIAQ2 0:11132Touchdown13–14
NEQ2 0:0500End of half13–14
NEQ3 15:00879Touchdown13–21
MIAQ3 11:0439Punt13–21
NEQ3 8:461042Field goal13–24
MIAQ3 4:4310Turnover13–30
NEQ3 4:35127Touchdown13–31
MIAQ3 4:3036Punt13–31
NEQ3 2:48347Touchdown13–38
MIAQ3 1:291465Turnover on downs13–38
NEQ4 10:461067Field goal13–41
MIAQ4 6:201333Turnover on downs13–41
NEQ4 2:25531End of half13–41

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill29/4734612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller16472.90
Ryan Tannehill3217.00
Daniel Thomas252.50
Rishard Matthews133.00
Mike Wallace100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace571041
Jarvis Landry811990
Charles Clay67590
Brandon Gibson34290
Daniel Thomas24200
Rishard Matthews25160
Lamar Miller12100
Damien Williams2490
Brian Hartline0200
Dion Sims0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3528721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray11625.60
Tom Brady3186.00
LeGarrette Blount8172.11
Julian Edelman166.00
Shane Vereen650.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski38961
Julian Edelman710881
Brandon LaFell68660
Shane Vereen13120
Danny Amendola11110
LeGarrette Blount2270
Jonas Gray1170
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Brian Tyms0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21