Closing spread
DET -8
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play-0.006
- 42.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- -2.18CPOE-4.76
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.79
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 31/41 | 315 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles D. Johnson | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 7 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/28 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89