2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

14·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -8

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.034EPA / play-0.006
  • 42.2%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -2.18CPOE-4.76
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.79
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:56516Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 11:2532Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:26513Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:17415Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:251084Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 0:16417Punt7–0
MINQ2 13:58775Touchdown14–0
DETQ2 10:05514Punt14–0
MINQ2 7:21523Turnover14–0
DETQ2 4:27211Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 3:4224Turnover14–7
DETQ2 3:00621Field goal14–10
MINQ3 15:00619Punt14–10
DETQ3 11:041274Field goal14–13
MINQ3 3:451885Missed field goal14–13
DETQ4 7:43965Field goal14–16
MINQ4 3:38516Turnover on downs14–16
DETQ4 1:5635Punt14–16
MINQ4 0:45425Missed field goal14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater31/4131512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata11363.31
Teddy Bridgewater33010.00
Ben Tate581.60
Joe Banyard221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles D. Johnson57720
Kyle Rudolph77690
Matt Asiata77500
Jarius Wright46490
Greg Jennings35431
Cordarrelle Patterson23160
Rhett Ellison2290
Chase Ford1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/2815310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell15624.10
Reggie Bush372.30
Golden Tate252.50
Theo Riddick144.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson46530
Joique Bell46410
Golden Tate77381
Eric Ebron12110
Reggie Bush12100
Jeremy Ross0200
Corey Fuller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.89