2014 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+9.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.007
- 38.5%Success rate44.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.50CPOE-1.27
- 36.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.63
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 13/28 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 14 | 96 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 8 | 13 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 25/40 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 10 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 8 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.74