2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

17·19

Panthers

Carolina

QB Derek Anderson

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+9.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.007
  • 38.5%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.50CPOE-1.27
  • 36.6%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.63
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:001290Field goal0–3
TBQ1 8:19580Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 5:541061Field goal7–6
TBQ1 1:1434Punt7–6
CARQ2 14:48630Missed field goal7–6
TBQ2 11:10722Punt7–6
CARQ2 7:131468Field goal7–9
TBQ2 1:10650Field goal10–9
CARQ2 0:0200End of half10–9
TBQ3 15:003-11Turnover10–9
CARQ3 14:4124Touchdown10–16
TBQ3 13:533-3Punt10–16
CARQ3 12:07658Turnover10–16
TBQ3 9:0634Punt10–16
CARQ3 8:0336Punt10–16
TBQ3 6:1638Punt10–16
CARQ3 4:4159Punt10–16
TBQ3 3:16848Turnover10–16
CARQ4 14:551236Field goal10–19
TBQ4 8:311285Touchdown17–19
CARQ4 3:11631Punt17–19
TBQ4 0:2320Turnover17–19
CARQ4 0:0600End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown13/2815411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin14966.90
Charles Sims7344.90
Josh McCown22110.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson610700
Charles Sims33450
Russell Shepard13230
Mike Evans28131
Doug Martin1130
Louis Murphy0100
Brandon Myers0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson25/4027710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart22753.40
Corey Brown11717.00
Derek Anderson5142.80
Fozzy Whittaker2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen10131100
Kelvin Benjamin8131040
Jerricho Cotchery55471
Corey Brown16100
Jonathan Stewart1160
Ed Dickson0100
Brenton Bersin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.5%5.1%6.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.83
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.74