Closing spread
NO -6
Total
56
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Falcons
- QuestionableJon AsamoahGBack· DNP
- QuestionableJulio JonesWRHip· DNP
- QuestionableWilliam MooreSFoot· Limited
- ProbableHarry DouglasWRFoot· Full
- ProbableJosh WilsonCBHand· Full
- ProbableRoddy WhiteWRKnee· Full
Saints
- QuestionableAkiem HicksDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJamarca SanfordSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableTerron ArmsteadTNeck· DNP
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.067
- 44.0%Success rate47.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.47CPOE+3.60
- 44.6%Third-down rate48.2%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 14:40 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 10:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 8:17 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 3:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:47 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 0:51 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NO | Q2 11:48 | 11 | 31 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 5:36 | 15 | 89 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NO | Q3 11:35 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:22 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| NO | Q3 5:42 | 13 | 78 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| ATL | Q4 14:49 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 20–7 |
| NO | Q4 9:28 | 12 | 87 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q4 5:48 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NO | Q4 2:40 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q4 2:28 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| NO | Q4 1:56 | 9 | 69 | Opp touchdown | 30–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/40 | 322 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/47 | 313 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Nick Toon | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jalen Saunders | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.65