Closing spread
NO -6
Total
56
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.067
- 44.0%Success rate47.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.47CPOE+3.60
- 44.6%Third-down rate48.2%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/40 | 322 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/47 | 313 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Nick Toon | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jalen Saunders | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.65