Closing spread
DET -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.055
- 41.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- -4.76CPOE-0.14
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.4%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.79Points / drive1.62
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/39 | 243 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 1 |
| George Winn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 12 | 103 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 23/39 | 181 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 15 | 72 | 1 |
| Marquess Wilson | 7 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.11
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.03