2014 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jimmy Clausen

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DET -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -4.76CPOE-0.14
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.62
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:30735Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:4834Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:15842Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 5:151474Turnover on downs7–0
DETQ2 12:42966Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 8:033-3Punt7–0
DETQ2 7:00736Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 4:141253Punt7–6
CHIQ2 0:36111Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 0:3038End of half7–7
DETQ3 15:00947Field goal10–7
CHIQ3 10:241465Touchdown10–14
DETQ3 2:451361Missed field goal10–14
CHIQ4 11:02517Punt10–14
DETQ4 8:20527Touchdown17–14
CHIQ4 7:1530Punt17–14
DETQ4 5:34848Field goal20–14
CHIQ4 2:3569Turnover20–14
DETQ4 1:5600End of half20–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3924302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell13745.71
Reggie Bush7547.71
George Winn155.00
Matthew Stafford420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson6121030
Golden Tate510620
Reggie Bush67440
Joique Bell23130
Jeremy Ross11110
Theo Riddick23100
Corey Fuller0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen23/3918121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte19552.90
Jimmy Clausen393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery615721
Marquess Wilson710660
Matt Forte66401
Josh Morgan2220
Dante Rosario1110
Martellus Bennett1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.11
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.03