2009 · Week 9

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

28·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

-3.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.156
  • 44.9%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +3.74CPOE-5.15
  • 47.0%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.06
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
TBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:10280Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:15510Punt7–0
GBQ1 9:4810Turnover7–0
TBQ1 9:3228Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 8:451169Touchdown14–7
TBQ1 2:39853Missed field goal14–7
GBQ2 13:2536Opp touchdown14–14
GBQ2 11:59876Touchdown21–14
TBQ2 7:384-1Punt21–14
GBQ2 5:2132Punt21–14
TBQ2 3:49213Turnover21–14
GBQ2 3:0130Punt21–14
TBQ2 2:321074Field goal21–17
GBQ2 0:0600End of half21–17
GBQ3 15:0034Punt21–17
TBQ3 13:0043Punt21–17
GBQ3 11:28638Turnover21–17
TBQ3 8:0339Punt21–17
GBQ3 6:21513Punt21–17
TBQ3 3:1938Punt21–17
GBQ3 1:30962Touchdown28–17
TBQ4 12:54317Touchdown28–23
GBQ4 11:34730Punt28–23
TBQ4 7:15867Touchdown28–31
GBQ4 4:1444Punt28–31
TBQ4 2:0539Punt28–31
GBQ4 1:354-2Opp touchdown28–38
GBQ4 0:35522Turnover on downs28–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/3526623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant21964.61
Ahman Green6457.50
Aaron Rodgers3268.71
Brandon Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones461031
Donald Driver49711
Greg Jennings510610
Ahman Green12100
Brandon Jackson1290
Donald Lee1250

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman14/3120531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams16563.50
Josh Freeman4205.00
Derrick Ward451.30
Clifton Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow45571
Derrick Ward33541
Maurice Stovall37460
Michael Clayton14290
Sammie Stroughter34191
Earnest Graham0100
Cadillac Williams0300
Brian Clark0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-3.54