2009 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.156
- 44.9%Success rate36.1%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.74CPOE-5.15
- 47.0%Third-down rate33.0%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.22Points / drive1.06
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/35 | 266 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 14/31 | 205 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Maurice Stovall | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-3.54