Closing spread
NE -10
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.074
- 46.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.32CPOE-3.58
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.38Points / drive1.41
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 31 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/27 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49