2014 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

17·16

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

47

Model margin

+0.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.074
  • 46.4%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.32CPOE-3.58
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.41
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:333-6Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:39522Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:4432Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:1138Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:18824Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:3838Punt0–0
NEQ2 14:45632Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 12:101287Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 5:5938Punt7–7
NYJQ2 4:531049Field goal7–10
NEQ2 0:521-7End of half7–10
NEQ3 15:0059Punt7–10
NYJQ3 12:531176Field goal7–13
NEQ3 6:391281Field goal10–13
NYJQ3 1:5520Turnover10–13
NEQ3 1:08838Touchdown17–13
NYJQ4 13:511159Field goal17–16
NEQ4 7:5330Turnover17–16
NYJQ4 7:183-4Missed field goal17–16
NEQ4 5:16855End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3518211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen6386.30
Brandon Bolden5326.40
Tom Brady7101.40
Jonas Gray650.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell710640
Danny Amendola811630
Rob Gronkowski610311
Shane Vereen12120
Timothy Wright11120
Jonas Gray0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/2721011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory11534.80
Chris Johnson10303.00
Bilal Powell5214.20
Geno Smith393.00
Percy Harvin210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley36540
Percy Harvin45440
Jeff Cumberland35431
Eric Decker24210
Bilal Powell22130
Zach Sudfeld1160
Chris Johnson1130
Jace Amaro0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49