Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.007
- 44.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.27CPOE+1.47
- 41.1%Third-down rate44.6%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.63Points / drive1.87
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10/16 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Brown | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Brenton Bersin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/47 | 260 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.47