2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

34·3

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.47
  • 41.1%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.87
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:001177Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 7:50838Punt3–0
CARQ1 4:491087Touchdown10–0
ATLQ1 0:04935Field goal10–3
CARQ2 10:3639Punt10–3
ATLQ2 9:283-1Punt10–3
CARQ2 8:01532Punt10–3
ATLQ2 5:262-5Opp touchdown17–3
ATLQ2 4:18436Turnover23–3
CARQ2 1:5414Touchdown24–3
ATLQ2 1:47525Punt24–3
CARQ2 0:4313End of half24–3
ATLQ3 15:003-12Punt24–3
CARQ3 13:18840Field goal27–3
ATLQ3 8:4337Punt27–3
CARQ3 7:3138Punt27–3
ATLQ3 5:461463Opp touchdown34–3
ATLQ3 0:071257Turnover on downs34–3
CARQ4 11:001146Turnover on downs34–3
ATLQ4 2:35845End of half34–3

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton10/1611410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton6518.51
Jonathan Stewart13493.80
Fozzy Whittaker7415.90
Corey Brown24120.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Brown11280
Greg Olsen23270
Jerricho Cotchery33250
Jonathan Stewart22200
Kelvin Benjamin1590
Ed Dickson1151
Brenton Bersin0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/4726002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers9444.90
Devonta Freeman6132.20
Matt Ryan166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8121040
Julio Jones48580
Devin Hester46320
Harry Douglas56280
Jacquizz Rodgers37190
Levine Toilolo23140
Devonta Freeman2330
Bear Pascoe1120
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.47