2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.142
  • 41.8%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -4.76CPOE+2.68
  • 38.3%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.59
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:451161Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 7:4459Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 4:491260Punt0–7
GBQ2 13:52976Turnover0–7
DETQ2 10:001052Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ2 6:19769Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 2:24962Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 0:2413End of half7–14
GBQ3 15:003-1Punt7–14
DETQ3 12:551151Touchdown14–14
GBQ3 7:34755Touchdown14–21
DETQ3 3:3330Punt14–21
GBQ3 3:02951Missed field goal14–21
DETQ4 13:3610Turnover14–21
GBQ4 13:281033Touchdown14–28
DETQ4 8:45638Turnover on downs14–28
GBQ4 7:21625Punt14–30
DETQ4 2:3910Safety14–30
GBQ4 2:3200Touchdown14–30
DETQ4 2:30331Touchdown14–30
DETQ4 1:55213Touchdown20–30
GBQ4 1:4535Punt20–30
DETQ4 0:362-6End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/4121730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell13604.60
Matthew Stafford4297.30
Reggie Bush5193.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate36450
Calvin Johnson411392
Eric Ebron26380
Theo Riddick57341
Jeremy Ross22330
Reggie Bush36220
Corey Fuller0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2222620
Matt Flynn1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy261003.80
James Starks5265.20
Aaron Rodgers2147.01
Randall Cobb263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson68860
Randall Cobb45802
Richard Rodgers55400
Eddie Lacy34260
Andrew Quarless0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81