Closing spread
GB -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.142
- 41.8%Success rate47.1%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- -4.76CPOE+2.68
- 38.3%Third-down rate47.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.79Points / drive2.59
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/41 | 217 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 11 | 39 | 2 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ross | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/22 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 80 | 2 |
| Richard Rodgers | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81