2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

27·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Charlie Whitehurst

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.029EPA / play-0.122
  • 45.9%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.190
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.10CPOE-2.82
  • 42.2%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.18
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:00712Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:54822Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:5242Punt0–0
INDQ1 5:54644Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 2:5436Punt7–0
INDQ1 1:27516Punt7–0
TENQ2 14:10620Punt7–0
INDQ2 10:44385Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 8:54852Touchdown14–7
INDQ2 5:07522Field goal17–7
TENQ2 2:5534Punt17–7
INDQ2 1:55314Punt17–7
TENQ2 0:27410End of half17–7
INDQ3 15:00633Punt17–7
TENQ3 11:5638Punt17–7
INDQ3 10:40428Missed field goal17–7
TENQ3 8:28757Field goal17–10
INDQ3 4:01869Field goal20–10
TENQ4 14:56211Turnover20–10
INDQ4 14:2848Turnover on downs20–10
TENQ4 12:2535Punt20–10
INDQ4 10:2637Punt20–10
TENQ4 8:044-3Turnover on downs20–10
INDQ4 6:27733Touchdown27–10
TENQ4 3:1649Turnover on downs27–10
INDQ4 2:1410Turnover on downs27–10
TENQ4 0:3400End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck10/1616020
Matt Hasselbeck13/1915510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron10353.50
Zurlon Tipton9212.30
Trent Richardson6111.80
Andrew Luck155.00
Matt Hasselbeck4-8-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne23910
Coby Fleener57562
Hakeem Nicks36460
Zurlon Tipton22450
Dan Herron33310
Jack Doyle45211
Donte Moncrief35160
Trent Richardson1190
T.Y. Hilton0300

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst12/287210
Jordan Palmer1/3700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene11948.50
Charlie Whitehurst4194.80
Bishop Sankey4184.50
Kendall Wright11010.00
Leon Washington221.00
Jackie Battle100.00
Jordan Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker710430
Derek Hagan25160
Antonio Andrews22110
Kendall Wright2591
Nate Washington0300
Leon Washington0200
Kris Durham0200
Bishop Sankey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.60