Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play-0.122
- 45.9%Success rate39.5%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.10CPOE-2.82
- 42.2%Third-down rate29.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.01Points / drive1.18
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 10/16 | 160 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/19 | 155 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | -8 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 3 | 91 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 7 | 56 | 2 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 12/28 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 94 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.60