2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

17·23

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -8.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.161EPA / play-0.031
  • 37.6%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.120
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -7.00CPOE-2.14
  • 32.0%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.63
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:53583Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:23740Field goal3–7
HOUQ1 6:02837Opp touchdown10–7
HOUQ1 2:55715Punt10–7
JAXQ2 14:4538Punt10–7
HOUQ2 13:191569Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 6:3438Punt10–14
HOUQ2 5:0939Punt10–14
JAXQ2 2:581335Punt10–14
HOUQ2 0:5624End of half10–14
HOUQ3 15:00610Punt10–14
JAXQ3 12:01437Missed field goal10–14
HOUQ3 9:53517Punt10–14
JAXQ3 7:4036Punt10–14
HOUQ3 6:214-3Turnover16–14
JAXQ3 4:52123Touchdown17–14
HOUQ3 4:451280Touchdown17–21
JAXQ4 13:3467Punt17–21
HOUQ4 10:42622Punt17–21
JAXQ4 6:323-7Safety17–23
HOUQ4 5:37617Punt17–23
JAXQ4 2:511065Turnover on downs17–23
HOUQ4 1:2100End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles14/3311700
Cecil Shorts1/12310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles36120.30
Jordan Todman7527.40
Toby Gerhart482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts510470
Jordan Todman56461
Ace Sanders11240
Allen Hurns24150
Marqise Lee2880
Marcedes Lewis0300
Clay Harbor0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum25/3525021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Grimes11454.10
Alfred Blue17392.31
Arian Foster5234.60
Case Keenum6162.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson10151341
Alfred Blue66370
Damaris Johnson33330
Jonathan Grimes23230
Arian Foster11101
Ryan Griffin1180
DeAndre Hopkins2650

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.65
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.80