Closing spread
HOU -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play-0.031
- 37.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.184EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.120
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -7.00CPOE-2.14
- 32.0%Third-down rate38.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 0.97Points / drive1.63
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 14/33 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1/1 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 61 | 20.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 25/35 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 15 | 134 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.65
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.80