2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

23·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

47

Model margin

+0.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.111
  • 47.9%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +3.60CPOE-1.50
  • 48.2%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.33
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:00839Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:1431Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:20834Field goal0–3
NOQ1 6:03630Punt0–3
TBQ1 2:481180Touchdown0–10
NOQ2 11:251280Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 5:451069Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 1:4838Turnover7–17
TBQ2 1:32726Field goal7–20
NOQ2 0:0600End of half7–20
NOQ3 15:001349Turnover7–20
TBQ3 9:1043Punt7–20
NOQ3 6:30749Turnover7–20
TBQ3 3:4133Punt7–20
NOQ3 1:30754Touchdown14–20
TBQ4 14:02519Punt14–20
NOQ4 10:15417Punt14–20
TBQ4 8:48616Turnover14–20
NOQ4 5:20750Touchdown21–20
TBQ4 1:574-9Safety23–20
NOQ4 1:0512End of half23–20
NOQ4 0:2100End of half23–20
NOQ4 0:0000End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3828113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14574.11
Khiry Robinson7152.11
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills58820
Jimmy Graham69540
Marques Colston26511
Nick Toon12240
Khiry Robinson22220
Benjamin Watson22180
Robert Meachem11160
Travaris Cadet2490
Mark Ingram2340
Drew Brees1110

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown14/2311511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin191085.70
Charles Sims18693.81
Josh McCown263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans56541
Brandon Myers46210
Tavarres King23130
Vincent Jackson12110
Russell Shepard12100
Charles Sims1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79