2014 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
NO -6
Total
47
Model margin
+0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.111
- 47.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.60CPOE-1.50
- 48.2%Third-down rate36.6%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.11Points / drive1.33
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/38 | 281 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 14/23 | 115 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Brandon Myers | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79